The NFIB Small Business Survey Optimism Index broke above 100 for the month of June, implying strength across the small business segment in the U.S.
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With the pandemic largely defeated in the U.S., life is reverting back to normal faster than most would have imagined.
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The inflation narrative really took hold of the markets in March (it was all CNBC could talk about), but if you went long that trade then, you would have significantly underperformed.
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Today’s inflation report was a rather big surprise (3.8% year-on-year reported, versus 3.3% expected), although it didn’t have as much effect on the stock market as one would have expected.
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Unfortunately, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts in growing the money supply by over 30x since 1970, the velocity of money has fallen precipitously.
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With any good party, there always a bit of ‘liquidity’ involved to help loosen people up and get a good time going.
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As the economy enters the late stages of reopening, we are going to see growth rates return to lower, more normalized levels.
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In general, interest rates have a straightforward relationship with equities. Higher interest rates means lower prices, and lower interest rates means higher prices.
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The recent outperformance in small cap stocks is fueling a strong reopening narrative in the markets.
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f you’ve followed our content over the past few years, you’ll know that equity spreads are the cornerstone to how we interpret the relative attractiveness of equity prices.
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The base case for 2021 is that as the economy reopens, earnings growth will return, cash stimulus and quantitative easing will subside, and rising interest rates will cause a slow train wreck for stratospheric equity valuations.
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In today’s market environment, managing risk in a portfolio can be difficult. Some investors will beat themselves up for missing out on what may turn out to be one of the largest bubbles of our lifetimes, while others will never forgive themselves for not getting out in time.
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