Inflation continued to moderate throughout the quarter, prompting the Federal Reserve to enter a new phase in the interest rate cycle.
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The US equity markets remained strong through Q2, fueled by inflation continuing to glide down which subsequently decreases the risk that the Fed will have to keep rates higher for longer.
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The US equity markets remained strong through Q1, supported by earnings expectations rising slightly as earnings have exceeded Wall Street’s expectations.
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The S&P 500 rallied sharply into the end of the year, closing with an 11.7% gain in Q4’2023 despite a weak start with a 2.1% decline in October.
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Q3 2023 was the first quarterly decline for the US stock market (the S&P 500) for the year, down roughly 3.5%.
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The 2nd quarter of 2023 was another pleasant surprise, although much of the market returns were concentrated in the largest technology companies everyone is familiar with.
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The first quarter of 2023 was a pleasant surprise in the financial market indexes.
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2022 was a historically difficult year to navigate in the financial markets. It was the worst year since the Great Depression for a conservative 60% stock / 40% bond portfolio.
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U.S. equities remained relatively flat this quarter as the bear market rally, fueled by cooling inflation expectations, succumbed to hotter than expected August CPI data.
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Mirador expects valuations to continue declining mainly driven by an aggressive central bank tightening cycle which includes a terminal Fed Funds rate of 3.5% and trillions of dollars taken out of the economy.
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The Federal Reserve AKA “The Fed”, which is America’s Central Bank, is in the beginning innings of a rate hike cycle intended to curb spending, which would reduce inflationary pressure.
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