SMBs still have access to loans and continue to maintain earnings but are having difficulty filling new roles.
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Most leading economic indicators showing yields may be overdone. No material change in 2023 rate cut expectations.
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The Fed has already started to tighten financial conditions by increasing interest rates, and has shifted its sentiment on monetary policy from “tactical” to “expeditious”.
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Equity Risk Premiums continue to be very unattractive relative to historical correlating returns.
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SMB employment hits pre-pandemic levels in both goods and services jobs.
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Bond and equity volatility telling completely different stories. Historically, equity markets “catch up” with bond market signals.
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10Y Treasury vs. 2Y Treasury near inversion (key sign of recession)
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VVIX and long-term yields showing optimism.
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Russia invades Ukraine which puts the Fed in a tight spot for policymaking as PCE rises again in January.
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Inflation at front of headlines with consumer and SMB sentiment at historic lows.
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All focus on earnings. Mega/Large caps growing earnings with stock prices reflecting positive outlook. Lower 2023 prospects.
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Looking over the last year, inflation was the primary narrative driving the equity markets.
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